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Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

ING Bank expects RO central bank to tolerate only marginal currency weakening

Romania’s central bank (BNR) is likely to defend the exchange rate around current stable levels unless a significant regional depreciation shift of a magnitude of say 6% takes place, or the retail market witnesses significant flows (towards forex), ING Bank says in a research note about the region’s currencies facing contagion effects from Ukraine-Russia.

So far, the high FX-passthrough into inflation (among others) makes the National Bank of Romania stand out in terms of the firmness of its FX stance, ING Bank explains.

A 1pp depreciation generates a 0.2% rise in prices in Romania - more than twice as much as in Poland (0.08%), the bank’s analysts explain.

Even if faced with one of the above-mentioned scenarios, BNR is not likely to let the local currency weaken below the 5 RON to EUR benchmark, which is the equivalent of a moderate 1% depreciation, ING Bank believes.

“Any retail behaviour changes (i.e. a rush to exchange lei into euros) could be the strongest incentive to either tolerate a small depreciation or hold the fort and keep the FX stable at any cost,” ING Bank says. 

(Photo: Henning Marquardt/ Dreamstime.com)

andrei@romania-insider.com

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Profile picture for user andreich
Andrei Chirileasa
Editor-in-Chief

Andrei studied finance at the Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies and started his journalism career in 2004 with Ziarul Financiar, the leading financial newspaper in Romania, where he worked for ten years, the last six of which as editor of the capital markets section. He joined the Romania-Insider.com team in 2014 as editor and became Editor-in-Chief in 2016. He currently oversees the daily content published on Romania-Insider.com and likes to stay up to date with everything relevant in business, politics, and life in Romania. Andrei lives with his family in the countryside in Northern Romania, where he built their own house. In his free time, he studies horticulture and tends to his family’s garden. He enjoys foraging in the woods and long walks on the hills and valleys around his village. Email him for story ideas and interviews at andrei@romania-insider.com. 

 

ING Bank expects RO central bank to tolerate only marginal currency weakening

Romania’s central bank (BNR) is likely to defend the exchange rate around current stable levels unless a significant regional depreciation shift of a magnitude of say 6% takes place, or the retail market witnesses significant flows (towards forex), ING Bank says in a research note about the region’s currencies facing contagion effects from Ukraine-Russia.

So far, the high FX-passthrough into inflation (among others) makes the National Bank of Romania stand out in terms of the firmness of its FX stance, ING Bank explains.

A 1pp depreciation generates a 0.2% rise in prices in Romania - more than twice as much as in Poland (0.08%), the bank’s analysts explain.

Even if faced with one of the above-mentioned scenarios, BNR is not likely to let the local currency weaken below the 5 RON to EUR benchmark, which is the equivalent of a moderate 1% depreciation, ING Bank believes.

“Any retail behaviour changes (i.e. a rush to exchange lei into euros) could be the strongest incentive to either tolerate a small depreciation or hold the fort and keep the FX stable at any cost,” ING Bank says. 

(Photo: Henning Marquardt/ Dreamstime.com)

andrei@romania-insider.com

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