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Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at iulian@romania-insider.com. 

 

CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index plunges in January

The latest poll conducted by CFA Romania Society among its members in January revealed a sharp decline of the macroeconomic confidence index from 57.6 points in December to 50.7 points in January. Compared to January 2021, the index dropped by 5 points.

Both components of the index, which track the current conditions and the expectations, have decreased compared to December and January 2021 as well.

The current conditions sub-index was 50 points in January, while the expectations were marginally more optimistic: 51.1 points.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon continued to rise, reaching an average of 6.32%.

Regarding the RON to EUR exchange rate, approximately 98% of the participants anticipate a local currency depreciation in the next 12 months (compared to the current value), with no appreciation opinion recorded. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is RON 5.0159 to EUR, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.0761 to EUR.

The poll revealed expectations for 4.3% GDP growth this year (from 5.6% in 2021) and a public deficit of 5.7% of GDP (from 6.7% in 2021).

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Dreamstime.com)

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Profile picture for user iuliane
Iulian Ernst
Senior Editor

Iulian studied physics at the University of Bucharest, and he sees himself as a physicist in the broadest sense of the word. He also studied economics at Charles University in Prague and Central European University in Budapest, after a master’s program in business administration at Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. Since recently, he’s been exploring coding and data analysis for business and economics. As a freelancer, he worked for nearly two decades as an analyst for ISI Emerging Markets, Euromonitor International, Business New Europe, but also as a consultant for OMV Petrom and UkrAgroConsult. Iulian was part of the founding team of Ziarul Financiar. At Romania Insider, which he joined in 2018, he is reviewing the latest economic developments for the premium bulletins and newsletters. He would gladly discuss topics such as macroeconomics, emerging markets, Prague, energy sector including renewable, Led Zeppelin, financial services, as well as tech start-ups and innovative technologies. Email him at iulian@romania-insider.com. 

 

CFA Romania macroeconomic confidence index plunges in January

The latest poll conducted by CFA Romania Society among its members in January revealed a sharp decline of the macroeconomic confidence index from 57.6 points in December to 50.7 points in January. Compared to January 2021, the index dropped by 5 points.

Both components of the index, which track the current conditions and the expectations, have decreased compared to December and January 2021 as well.

The current conditions sub-index was 50 points in January, while the expectations were marginally more optimistic: 51.1 points.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon continued to rise, reaching an average of 6.32%.

Regarding the RON to EUR exchange rate, approximately 98% of the participants anticipate a local currency depreciation in the next 12 months (compared to the current value), with no appreciation opinion recorded. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is RON 5.0159 to EUR, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.0761 to EUR.

The poll revealed expectations for 4.3% GDP growth this year (from 5.6% in 2021) and a public deficit of 5.7% of GDP (from 6.7% in 2021).

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Dreamstime.com)

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